Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The falling price of gas is about to hit bottom

One of the positive aspects of the economy going down the toilet is that people are spending less, especially on gasoline and diesel. People are car pooling and skipping those quick trips to the fast food joint down the road to save a few dollars here and there, which has lead to less demand for oil, which in turn has brought down the price of gasoline. Never fear though, OPEC is getting ready to meet this Friday to discuss what to do to keep oil prices higher so that they can continue to rake in the cash even as the economies of most of the free world crumble around them. My guess is that they will cut back on production so that there is no surplus of gasoline and prices will level off or go back up again relatively soon despite our lack of demand. It's a monopoly, so the "free market" is only free to move within their boundaries.

This is the roller coaster ride that lulls the masses into thinking that things will return to "normal" again... Prices fluctuate wildly as demand and supply are unable to find a balance in an unstable market. Here's where people fall into a trap - seeing that the price of gasoline is falling, they put off all of the energy saving alternatives that they were looking at while prices were high. They go back to driving the big SUV instead of letting it rot in the driveway where it really belongs. Ford, Dodge & Chevrolet saw this coming many, many years ago. It's time for them to either re-tool while it affordable or go the way of the dodo bird for not bothering to heed the warning signs. Unfortunately, we the taxpayers will likely end up paying for their greed and lack of planning as I doubt that the US Government will step aside and let more than one of our major car manufacturers feel the full effects of their stupidity.

Those of us with nothing to lose (no 401K, 403B or huge sums of money in any bank), no real expenses (no mortgage, no property tax, no interest payments on anything) could really care less if all of the banks and mortgage companies suck themselves and everything that they touched down the proverbial black hole they created. We've been living within our means and being responsible for our own actions. We've been dying to buy a piece of property with even a modest home on it, but we don't have the savings to buy outright and knew that housing prices would have to fall from their nearly 100% markups...

Every dollar that the US government pours into saving the banks and mortgage lenders (which will not pay the mortgage for you or slow the falling price of housing one bit) just means that more government social service programs will be cut, taxes will be increased and more rules and regulations designed to keep track of our spending (to insure that we're not making any money under the table) will be put in place. You might be thinking to yourself (but they can tax the rich instead of the rest of us)... Yeah right - the rich have all of the options and loopholes. They can afford to move their money around at will and have the inside track on where to invest to shield their money from taxation. Any attempt to increase taxes for the rich that succeeds (i.e. taxing banks at a higher rate for example), will just be passed on to the rest of us as an increase in the cost of borrowing money, or a new type of fee tacked on to your home loan. Trickle down economics only works in reverse - money always trickles up - never down, which is why the 1.5 trillion dollars pouring into the banking sector will not return one thin dime to the average Joe. Joe will have to continue to work to "earn" that tax break or refund check while the banks continue to earn more money simply by making Joe their "customer".

If we all stop borrowing money and instead save for the future, all of these problems become just problems for the banks instead of problems for the entire world.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Obama can't save us

Guess what folks, neither Obama, McCain nor Ron Paul is going to save our assets. The Bush legacy has yet to be fully known. Our great, great grandkids will still be flipping us off for not doing a damn thing while the wealth of the world was transferred to the hands of just a few select families. I'm not just talking about money here - the real wealth of the world is our natural resources. The natural resources that make life on this planet worth living. The money is just an indicator of how fast we're depleting those resources.

If you had gone into a coma at the beginning of the Bush administration and awoken just yesterday, do you think you would believe the number of shocking changes that have taken place in just the past 8 years? A war, the failure of emergency services post Katrina, a near total collapse of the banking system, record joblessness, major corporations on the brink of Bankruptcy, nearly double the national debt (from 5,674,178,209,886.86 to 10,326,055,380,264.11 - spending more in an 8 year period than all other administrations combined), the lack of personal freedoms and loss of privacy. You would find that you can be taken in the middle of the night, held prisoner indefinitely and tortured - all without a warrant or any kind of trial - just for being suspected of any form of state terrorism. You would hear that the president has the power in an emergency to circumvent all other branches of government, take control of private businesses and any other action he/she determines is in our best interest at the time... and on, and on...

All of these changes will not be reversed or repaired by the next president. With nearly 11 trillion in debt, the next president faces double the debt. More of our taxes will have to go to paying interest on the debt that our government owes which means less money for social programs. There's no way we can continue to borrow to pay the monthly bills. Something has to give - and I seriously doubt that those with the most resources will be the ones to do the giving...

There is a way out of this mess, but it will not come from the top down. Changes that do the most good for society always come from the bottom up. Those that do the work have the real power, not the ones at the top that just redistribute the wealth. Just imagine what would happen if you were to work directly for the things you needed instead of trading your work for a piece of paper that continually buys less and less...

Monday, October 6, 2008

Kiss your assets goodbye

If it hasn't hit you over the head like a sledgehammer yet, just wait. The "experts" are saying that this whole thing is in our heads. Apparently it is all our fault that the economic situation is so bad. Because you put off buying that new pair of shoes or stopped eating out at Red Lobster last week, the economy is doomed to be in a recession for at least the next year or two. Unless you get back to spending your money like never before, we're all doomed... It's your fault that the banks are in trouble - if you had gone on with your life - business as usual - despite being upside down on your home, cars and credit cards, things would be just fine. Basically, if you would just shut up, go back to your cubicle and make your minimum payments, the banks would go back to making money and be happy. But no, you stopped spending. You saw your down payment disappear. You saw that you would be handing over most of your paycheck to the bank for 30 years while the home they sold you depreciated faster than you could have ever imagined. Now the banks are pissed off and going to get your money any way they can. If they can't get it from you directly, they're going to get it through your taxes. Which is what they would prefer anyway - less chance of default that way...

We are the idiots that handed over 1.4 trillion dollars to the banking system so far. It looks to me like that is about the amount that the stock market has dropped... So, your assets are nearly directly being funneled into the banking system. It's sort of like putting out a fire with gasoline isn't it? The more money we funnel into the banks, the faster we burn through our future resources. We're already looking at a 500 billion dollar budget shortfall for next year. What government programs will be cut this time? Something has got to give and it certainly will not be the banking sector. Will it be education? Healthcare? Social Security? State funding? Bridge maintenance? Non-profit organizations? Welfare? Food subsidies? Right at the height of the unemployment & housing crisis - wouldn't it be the worst time to cut back on any social safety net? But something has to give, and it historically has never been the ones that took the most, so it will not be the banks, mortgage companies, investment firms or the Fed itself.

You are unlikely to see relief for the next 10-15 years, and even that is a bit optimistic considering all of the other critical things we've neglected. All it will take at this point is a relatively minor catastrophic event to push us past the point of no return - and by no return I mean you will never again have the opportunity to live life as you have grown accustomed to. Short of us retracting back into our borders and bailing on our debt obligations around the globe, we're pretty much looking at the kind of things that will plague us for the rest of our lives.

The US is in debt far beyond anyone's wildest expectations. Oil is past it's peak and there is no real capital available right now to go poking around in the bedrock of the seismic hot spots off our coasts anyway. Even the government is too broke to pay for an oil program now. We've systematically destroyed our farmland, oceans and most critically our fresh water supplies. We've screwed up the atmosphere and permanently changed the climate of our planet. We've distanced ourselves from the many allies that we once had and re-established old conflicts. We've screwed up our educational system and neglected our best and brightest. We've shifted all of our assets into the hands of a few and given up our freedoms under the guise of safety and security, and that's not even the worst of it all...

Keep your head out of the sand and pay attention - one of the largest rapes of society is taking place right before your eyes and the media is too well behaved and too busy making money off the campaigns to bother with something that doesn't make them any money and might make them unpopular (at least in the short run)...